THE NORTHEAST’S FARM FUTURE: OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS

Agriculture and food production are vital to our health, prosperity and culture and connect to virtually all levels of our economic, environmental, social, and policy-making systems. This critical sector is in the midst of a fundamental structural transition in the Northeast worthy of far more attention than is currently afforded to it.

The sector currently faces challenges related to an aging farmer population, continued conversion of agricultural land, loss of jobs, and, in the case of dairy especially, intense global competition and sustained low milk prices. The average age of the principal farm operator in the region has been steadily increasing from 54 in 1997 to 58 in 2012.3 In 2012, the average age of new entrants in New York and New England was 49, which is on par with the national average for farm start-ups, but higher than the national average age of 40 for start-up business founders. Farmland conversion is also negatively affecting the viability of the agricultural sector. The region saw a 52% increase in developed land between 1982 and 2012.4 Twenty-three percent of this developed land was converted from cropland and pastureland; 75% was converted from forest land.

The agriculture and food sector employs an impressive 2.1 million people in full or part-time jobs in New York and New England– 9.4% of total employment in the region.5 While employment in these sectors increased 21% from 1998 to 2016, direct agricultural employment (farming, forestry, fishing, and related activities) declined 7%. This trend coincides with the continued loss of dairy farms in the region. Currently, direct agricultural employment represents 0.7% of total employment. The total contribution of agriculture and its related industries to the GDP of the region remained around 3% between 1998 and 2015.

However, the 8,268 farmers’ markets that operated in New England and New York in 2014 —180% more than in 2006—are evidence of growing consumer interest in local foods and in directly supporting the local economy.6 Furthermore, there has been a significant increase in sales for the specialty food and beverage industry, rising 15% between 2014 and 2016 to a total of $127 billion in sales in 2016, while all food sales at retail locations grew by just 2.3%.7 As consumer demand for fresh, local, and source-identified food options increases, food producers and suppliers in the Northeast could be well-positioned to increase their share of that market demand if key stakeholders invest in supporting farm and food business viability.